Bored.

The disastrous news from this small North Shropshire town, is that Sainsburys have run out of wine, certainly the affordable gutrot (that is German for “good red” of course). When you’ve asked someone else to collect shopping for you, it is unreasonable to ask them to visit all the shops to make sure that you have this essential cooking ingredient. You’d just imagine they’d do it anyway, recognising the importance. Big shout out to my shopping helper! However, I now have all the other ingredients needed to produce haute cuisine (or hot food as we say in English)

Symptoms today: still coughing and not much more to report. Maybe I don’t even have this virus, and am over-reacting, but the whole point of social distancing and isolation is to remove this qualitative judgement. I was sad to hear that a former colleague is much worse than me – in hospital on oxygen and with no one allowed to visit him. This shit is real kids.

There are some fascinating articles being produced, many of which are strongly disagreeing with the Government’s current position of “lockdown”. There seems to be a 100% correlation between these and their organ’s views of Brexit, climate change and the role of the state. This is not to say that they are completely wrong, but I’d rather get facts from named scientists rather than pundits or journalists. Over the next weeks we are going to see more and more articles that argue with the data, the data models used, and the policies pursued by government. What is important to remember is that science provides us with the background information. As more becomes known about mortality, rates of infection, then the predictions that data scientists can make become better (better starting data = better forecasts). The danger is that pundits will look at early predictions, and dismiss all of science, whereas science is really about updating hypotheses based on best data and agreed ideas. Governments then set policies based on their interpretation of best available science.

Also from the sewers of Twitter– complaints that government is hiding or massaging the numbers who have died. All because Public Health England have changed the start and end point of the 24 hour period over which they count, and the time at which they report. Common sense will then explain why the data on Wednesday seemed low and that on Thursday seemed high. I expect this to settle down to its previous exponential curve. It’ll be interesting to see if the data today correlate with the predictions that I and others have modelled. Obviously I’m not sharing that model – I’m not an epidemiologist, I just do numbers for fun.

What will really be interesting, as more data becomes available, we get more experience, and we know more about immunity, is how governments decide what their exit strategy is going to be, as there is a balance between protecting citizens, maintaining civil society and having a functioning economy.

On the plus side, it’s been a productive day, teaching circulation and heart dissection to one student, then helping another to prepare for a test on evidence of evolution. My dad was a vicar, and in sermons looking down form the pulpit he would say “From where I’m standing it seems clear we are descended from monkeys.”

Today’s heroes and zeroes:

Heroes:

Disney + 7 day free trial, meaning unlimited Marvel movies

Dr Who giving us advice in this video https://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/dr-who-jodie-whittaker-video-coronavirus-lockdown-a4397591.html

National Theatre broadcasting shows on Thursday evenings, starting with One Man, Two Guvnors.

Zeroes

Pretty much any company not allowing staff to stay away – call centres I’m thinking of you!

#BoredWitless

Well this virus is a right bugger, as they don’t say down south.

Coughing still, bit of a temperature overnight, very tight chest, massive lethargy and general grotty feeling.

Wednesday meant I had to do a bit of work, delivering a 2-hour revision class to one of my tutees. Tricky when talking is what makes me cough more, but the joy (!) of the gig economy is that if I don’t do it, I don’t get paid. Luckily, I can do this without needing to leave the house.

Other than that, feeling pretty crap. The local Facebook group is full of people writing about people treating shopping trips as a social occasion, taking their entire families, stopping to have a chat. This is how you get sick, people. Being cynical, by the time I recover, lots more of them will be ill and so I will have the shop to myself.

The afternoon’s entertainment was brought via Disney+ (I’m getting maximum value from the 7 day free trial), followed by the signal for the country to start drinking, aka the daily press conference.

And because I like playing with data and numbers, I’ve been taking the cases and deaths data for the virus, looking to see what the exponential coefficient is, and predicting how many deaths we will see. I’m not sharing that – it’s fucking terrifying. – as my maths may be wrong, even though it is producing similar results to outcomes in other countries.

If you haven’t got the message yet – don’t go out!

On to today’s heroes and zeroes.

Kudos to James Timpson. I’ve always been a fan of this company once I’d read of their support for ex-offenders.

Onto the zeroes. Obviously, Tim Martin of Wetherspoons had this coming.

I see he has decided to pay his workers now, maybe he realised that a lot of people wouldn’t be going to ‘Spoons again after this is over.

And finally I give you my MP. I’ve never been a fan, he is just a shill for American business interests, and an utter (sorry, WordPress won’t let me write that word).

#StayAtHome

Om Monday evening I took a walk through the park then around the edge of town, keeping myself away from people as advised. Looking into supermarkets as I passed I decided there were already too many people inside and decided not to drop in and pick up a bottle of wine.

On getting home, I put supper in the oven, then did quick session on the bike on a  turbo trainer. By the end of exercising I was very aware of a tight chest. By the end of supper, I was coughing repeatedly and deciding that this was the time to decide I might have this virus.

Of course, there is no way of telling if I have – throughout Tuesday I continued to cough, but my temperature appeared normal much of the time. The only other symptom appears to be lethargy, but that could just be laziness.

Coughing got much worse if I tried to speak. This became an advantage when you have insurance scammers calling you – a quick bout of coughing and they get off the line really quickly.

I’m going to be at home for the next 7 days: an advantage of living alone is that this doesn’t mean anyone else will need to be isolated for 14 days.

At the end of Tuesday, here’s the summary:

• Symptoms: Still coughing, tired
• Provisions – Enough food for 7 days, but very low stocks of alcohol
• Reading – the latest Rebus novel by Ian Rankin
• Crossword – completed just over half of the cryptic puzzle in today’s Guardian so far
• Work – minimal, just some email and a look to check students have submitted assignments
• Annoyance with people who ignored the need to keep social distance – high!

Last week, before stricter lock down measures were announced, I couldn’t believe how close people wanted to get in lines in the supermarket, or how they crowded together in entrances of shops for a chat.

Even more shocking, photos on Facebook of a pub in my town, celebrating “Great people” going out for a drink:

Hardly surprising when this man wanted to keep his pubs open and suggested that there is nothing wrong with socialising in a bar

And even the vice chancellor of a (not to be named) university tweeting about going to the pub (Happy Friday!) only an hour after the government had announced that pubs and bars should close (This was later deleted, after some pretty inevitable criticism).

Luckily the Daily Mash was on hand to provide a suitable commentary on people who don’t get social distancing.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

Oh, and stay away from people!

It may not quite be the end of the year, or indeed the decade, but writing a list of people who I’ve found inspiring is cathartic, doing this before we know the results of this week’s election, one which has been characterised by lying and the worst of people.

Sport

In at number one and representing the world of sport. In a year where as always we could be spoilt for choice, I picked Dina Asher Smith. Academically brilliant – 10 A* at GCSE, 3 As at A level and a first from King’s London, this year she was winner of the 200m title in the World Athletics Championships 2019 and she is the fastest British woman runner in history.

Music

From the world of music, my album of the year is Kiwanuke, the third album from Michael Kiwanuke. Soulful, and written to be listed to as an album, which suits us older folk!

Public Life

For standing up for what is right, despite all the smears, and being prepared to use the British judicial system to hold parliament to account, despite all the obstacles place in her way, Gina Miller. It’s worth reading the linked article for an understanding of what she believes in.

Books

In literature, the inestimable Margaret Atwood. Continuing the story of the dystopian Gilead is a parable for our times.

Cinema

One of the most powerful films this year was “Sorry, We Missed You”. Ken Loach at the age of 83 still produces work with a sublime combination of empathy and shock. His portrayal of the gig economy and its effect on individual and families should be watched by anyone, in fact everyone, who relies on their purchases from Amazon or elsewhere being delivered by courier. You won’t complain about a late or mishandled delivery again.

On the subject of film, mention has to go to Debbie Honeywood, an unknown actor who played Abby in “Sorry We Missed You”. Two of her scenes, both where we see and hear just her side of a phone call, are some of the most moving in the film.

Politics

From the world of politics, it sometimes seems hard to find someone you might respect, but look beyond this small island and its ongoing psychodrama and we have Jacinda Ardern. Her response to the massacre in Christchurch was a lesson in humility, dignity and leadership to all others.

Science

As a scientist, I have to pick someone from the world of science, and who better than Katie Bouman. Her excitement was infectious when the first ever photograph of a black hole was revealed, where she had led the development of the imaging algorithm.

Environment

And finally – a remarkable person who holds us all to account, who repeatedly reminds us of what science says. You know she’s right when a bunch of angry white men have to take to their keyboards to discredit her – Greta Thunberg

On this day, 40 years ago, Pink Floyd released “The Wall”.

At that time, I was in the first year of 6^th form, at that age where you are still trying to find and define your musical identity, which for soem reason mattered more in those days. As someone who’d bene brought up with classical and church music, and who played in orchestras, prog inevitably drew me in.

And then Pink Floyd released this. The ever so worldly upper sixth formers I knew (in what I would now know to call a vertical tutor group), were astonished that the album appeared to be so commercial, and were even more shocked that they managed to get a number one single from it, “Another Brick in the Wall, Part 2”. Possibly my least favourite song on the entire album, with its “We don’t need no education” refrain.

But the album had absolute gems, and even at first it didn’t seem to compare to Dark Side, or Wish You Were Here, some lyrics just stood out, and stand the test of time.

“Hey You”, with its spiky acoustic guitar, and the sound of fingers sliding across the frets:

Hey you, out there in the cold
Getting lonely, getting old
Can you feel me?
Hey you, standing in the aisles
With itchy feet and fading smiles
Can you feel me?
Hey you, don’t help them to bury the light
Don’t give in without a fight

The despair of “Nobody Home”:

I’ve got a little black book with my poems in.
Got a bag with a toothbrush and a comb in.
When I’m a good dog, they sometimes throw me a bone in.

Side 4 was never a comfortable listen (yes kids, albums had sides in those days). You had to remind yourself the fascist Pink was part of  a dream sequence, but you know there’s plenty of people around today who would happily say

“There’s one in the spotlight, he don’t look right to me”

Finally, redemption in “Outside the Wall”.

Some hand in hand
And some gathered together in bands.
The bleeding hearts and artists
Make their stand.

And when they’ve given you their all
Some stagger and fall, after all it’s not easy
Banging your heart against some mad bugger’s wall

But let’s face it, the top track is the last one in side 3, with two fabulous Dave Gilmour guitar solos. This is from the band’s “reunion” in 2005. Enjoy

The phrase we see on Twitter, when a user has chosen to make their account private, and I confess that these days, this does include me.

For over 10 years I’ve used Twitter – I was a fairly early adopter, and to start with struggled to see what was the point, but very quickly, Twitter became a virtual home, place where I could share ideas about my work, make connections and develop a “personal learning network”. It became the place I plugged my blog articles, where I found some key thinkers on higher education policy and allowed me to identify possible speakers for conferences.

More recently I’ve become less enamoured, let me explain why.

Twitter and HE

There are still plenty of users who provide great insight into HE, and organisations like HEPI and Wonkhe are a reliable guide to the challenges and thinking in the sector. On the downside though, too many individual accounts are now just retweets of that user’s institutional marketing, or a tweet to announce “I’m at this meeting today”, while making sure that the head of department, VC and institutional account are copied in. Even worse is the individual academic account tweeting about a course being, for example, 2nd in England for an aspect of student experience as measured in a league table (not of course, the original NSS data form 2 years previously…). It all gets rather tedious

Edu-twitter

As a qualified teacher, I’m also interested in thoughts of other teachers, and Twitter has been a great sources of support and links to resources as well as current thinking about education. It does get pretty vicious though, especially the ongoing fight between trads and progressives.

Snowflakes

Oh yes, the accusation thrown out to anyone who disagrees with you. Organisations can seem to be pretty snowflakey too – they have a reputation to protect after all, and will make sure that the digital chip-paper that is Twitter never appears to challenge that. I’m sure there was a good reason why there were 5 accounts belonging to employment lawyers (individual and corporate accounts) who were following me. I don’t know the reason, but, reader, I blocked them.

Politics

And now the sewer really deepens. Politics in the UK has become so polarised, and I am sickened just reading the comments. Most worrying is that an increasing number of people cite social media as their source of news. Really? This is scary, but it’s easier to have all your biases confirmed and polarised further than it is to read a decent newspaper.

Ten arguments for deleting your social media accounts right now

This is a great book by Jaron Lanier. He presents 10 reasons for leaving, or at least stepping back from, social media.

Read it, just read it and re-evaluate why you think the way you do.

Conclusions

Am I likely to quit Twitter – nah, not completely, but I’ve been badly burned in the last year by the way some people have chosen to interpret my tweets.

Hence, I might retweet a newspaper article, but I won’t comment much. I rarely make an individual comment on education anymore. I do comment on cycling – that’s uncontentious, although despite being delighted that Bernal won the Tour, I’d have loved to see another team win for once. (Sorry to all the Team Ineos fanboys)

Oh, and I’ll be keeping my account locked as well as maintaining a long list of accounts I’ve blocked, so that I get to decide who can read what I write.

This is a slightly off-topic blog post, the only real link to education, and in particular higher education, is the origin of the parlour game, Humiliation.

This makes its appearance in David Lodge’s campus novel “Changing Places”. Lodge’s character Philip Swallow introduces this to american colleagues at Euphoric State University. The idea is to name a book that you’ve not (but might be expected to have) read. Points are scored for everyone else who has read the book. The humiliation comes from admitting you haven’t read canonical works of literature. In the book, an admission of not having read the text of Hamlet leads to an English academic not getting tenure.

Anyway, as a scientist, I’m expected to be a philistine, and have certainly not read much of what might constitute an undergraduate literature reading list. Last week however, I was settling into that most British of activities, namely reading the Radio Times, the Christmas issue being  the only issue bought in middle class households across the country. Going through the film listings, I realised that I could play Humiliation, using classic movies I’ve not seen, so here’s a list of what I’ve managed to miss or avoid.

• The Sound of Music
• Mary Poppins
• It’s a Wonderful Life
• The Wizard of Oz
• Citizen Kane
• ET
• Jaws
• Pretty much all horror films, apart from Psycho, and The Omen

I didn’t see the original Star wars until probably 10 years after it was released. I must have spent too much time reading books.

It’s been almost a week since TEF results were made public, and some of the predictable coverage, posturing, and agonising have occurred. Here are a few of my thoughts.

The importance of the written submission

In advance, we were all told that the written submission mattered, but at the same time, that the initial hypothesis that would be based purely on metrics was felt to be the factor that would determine classification. Looking at the result then plenty of universities have been awarded a TEF rating higher than their initial metrics would suggest. (This is personally pleasing since I wrote a significant amount of my previous employer’s submisison). The commentary provided by the TEF panel on each submission makes it clear that a written submission that demonstrated that an institution understood why it it missed benchmarks, could explain this in terms of contextual data, and show that activity was taking place to remediate the situation, then the higher award was possible.

The press didn’t understand what was being measured.

In advance of publication I was asked on Twitter whether anyone outside the sector was going to be interested in the results. Inevitably those papers who have a vested interest (by publishing their own university guides) or who have a reputation for being a TEF booster ( I’m looking at you here, The Times), were always going to publish something.

We inevitably saw articles reminding us that Southampton, LSE and Liverpool of the Russell Group had not performed as expected, and this this showed the shake up in the sector. Equally, there was criticism that the expected ranking or established order was not being replicated.

Any paper that publishes its own league table is going to be concerned if another form of ranking does not tally with their figures. But this is to misunderstand what TEF is – it’s about measures against benchmarks, not absolute performance, hence the difficulty for some unis in scoring above already high benchmarks, and for the press to create a simple story from a more complex narrative.

Universities love to celebrate

There was plenty of gold across those who felt they’d done well! This despite the rumblings and complaints in advance that the idea of three levels of ranking, like medals, was reductive and couldn’t possibly communicate the complexity of what a university does

How much does it matter to the sector?

TEF clearly matters to those in the sector, and will have implications for behaviours in the future. Universities already work hard to make sure that they optimise their data returns to HESA, that they get good scores in NSS by promoting and managing survey completion, and getting good scores on DLHE by managing those returns.

In future, these activities might drive performance management behaviours in universities even more than at present, with possible unforeseen consequences – courses and subject areas that perform poorly on a key metric may not longer be considered as viable, especially while TEF continues to be at institutional level.

For planning departments, then we can expect to see ever more sophisticated models of academic portfolio performance, and increased scrutiny of data returns.

((From the Modern Toss Work postcard set: http://ow.ly/hFV530cT60U )

The impact on fees has been temporarily removed, and with possible changes to funding in future (let’s face it, HE funding is back on the agenda after the recent General Election), then TEF as an instrument of marketisation through differential fees loses its power.

How much does it matter to the press?

For those in the press, TEF might just be a way to get easy headlines about perceived poor performance of established universities, while expressing shock at the performance of some FE colleges.

For the specialist press, commentariat and twitterati, TEF is a gift – something for the wonks to pore over and luxuriate in, in that quiet period at the end of an academic year.

How much does it matter to the punters?

For parents and potential students, TEF is just one more set of information to use, and has to be added to existing marketing collateral, multiple league tables, and guidance from schools and colleges. Without a clear explanation of what i being measured (particularly the issue of relative performance rather than absolute) then it’s not a straightforward measure, but just one more to add to the mix. Coupled with the Guardian University Guide concept of “value added” then it’s hardly surprising that potential students aren’t always clear about what might be on offer.

Finally, TEF may just be ignored if it does not provide the confirmation bias that people often use on making these kind of decisions. For example, I have a son who wants to study History in a year’s time. Both Staffordshire and Durham scored Silver. But I’m only going to recommend one of those.

You can bet though, that universities will shout about their TEF outcome (provided it was good) at this summer’s open days.

My previous blog has now been migrated to this site (actually this has been a mirror site for quite a long time, but never used beyond that).

It’s time to start writing new content, and building up stats again – but just to show how much the old blog was read, here’s a peek at the final usage stats:

And that “best ever” – that was on the day I wrote about the Guardian University Guide in 2014. In fact most of the high traffic posts have been about league tables, although one of the latest posts on “Does UK HE have a Retention Problem” has been pretty popular.